I find it challenging to work a gauge swatch for a sweater. There are minute changes to my tension when I work over the full yoke stitches vs a sleeve, for example. I worked my swatch in the round over 44 sts. My swatches don't lie, they don't necessarily tell the full story.
While I love swatching for fun, I don't really enjoy making one for gauge. I just want to start the project already.
How much does gauge matter? I'm debating between working between two sizes. The ease is incredibly generous, and I prefer pullovers a little more fitted. Thankfully the early part -- the colourwork part -- of this sweater is is worked the same for both sizes.
What I will need to figure out more than stitch gauge is my row (technically round) gauge. I need to know when to divide for the sleeves, and since my round gauge is -- according to this swatch -- tighter by 1.25 rounds over four inches, I'll need to do some maths. Previously, I've waited too long to do this and for a top down circular/raglan yoke that does not lead to a good fit. However, in this case, it may probably work in my favor.
There's a few challenges with the swatch I worked and one that is a bit of an elephant. I worked the minimum size (over 44 sts and it's barely 6 inches) making it difficult to measure in the round (as I've not yet cut it to get a more accurate measurement). I didn't work a proper stitch count for the full colour repeat. I neglected to measure my gauge before I tossed it in the water for a wet block.
Why does this matter? While I'm working the sweater I'm measuring unblocked gauge. I need to know how much it changed!
What size will I work? My expectation is I will work looser over the yoke than I did for the swatch. So this is ok, it doesn't matter which of the two sizes I'm aiming for, I'll cast on the same number of stitches. I'm also planning on doing a provisional cast-on and working the neckline later -- either as written or a crew neck. I believe that will change how I knit at the start of the colourwork.
So I'm going to jump in and start the sweater now. Once I finish the yoke I'll need to decide which size I'm working, but for now it's not critical -- the instructions are the same for this part.